Government and PTI talks: 'Imran Khan's release may be the last step, not the first'
Omar Daraz NangianaBBC Urdu, LahoreDecember,23,2024
Pros and Cons of 'Imran Khan’s Release May Be the Last Step'
Pros:
1. Strategic Resolution: Imran Khan’s release at the end of negotiations could symbolize the success of talks, ensuring political stability.2. Pressure on PTI: Keeps PTI motivated to comply with terms set during negotiations, fostering cooperation.3. Reduction in Political Tensions: Finalizing his release may pacify political turmoil and protests.4. Stronger Institutional Authority: Demonstrates that the government follows due process rather than yielding to pressure.
Cons:
1. Delays in Trust Building: PTI supporters may view delayed release as an act of bad faith, prolonging mistrust.2. Public Backlash: Extended incarceration could trigger nationwide protests and unrest, affecting governance.3. Risk of Deadlock: If negotiations fail before the final step, the impasse may worsen.4. Weakened Opposition Morale: Delayed release could demoralize PTI leaders and supporters, polarizing the political landscape further.
After several days of efforts, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the federal government of Pakistan succeeded in holding the first negotiation meeting at Parliament House on Monday.
Almost all the members of the government-nominated negotiation committee were present in the meeting, but only three members from the PTI attended the meeting. They were Asad Qaiser, Sahibzada Hamid Raza and Raja Nasir Abbas.
Those who did not attend included Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Omar Ayub, Salman Akram Raja, Hamid Khan and Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Ali Amin Gandapur.
The statement issued after the meeting quoted Asad Qaiser as saying that “some of these members could not attend the negotiation meeting due to appearances in cases, court engagements and being out of the country.”
According to the statement, both committees expressed their willingness to continue the negotiations and agreed to convene the next meeting on January 2, in which the opposition “will submit its demands to the government in writing.”
According to the statement, the meeting “was held in a conducive atmosphere and both sides emphasized the need to resolve the issues through dialogue.”
Speaking to local media after the meeting, PTI leader Asad Qaiser said that he had requested the government to facilitate his meeting with former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is in jail, which was accepted.
He said that his demands were clearly put forward in the meeting, the top of which is the demand for the release of political prisoners including Imran Khan.
He also demanded that the government conduct an inquiry into the incidents of May 9 and November 26.
Asad Qaiser said that this was the initial round of negotiations, while the negotiations will officially begin from the meeting on January 2.
Opposition Leader in the National Assembly Omar Ayub also spoke to media representatives regarding the negotiation meeting and said that his party’s demands are clear.
In addition to the demands put forward by Asad Qaiser, he said that his party also demands that the government recognize its electoral mandate and that new elections should be held.
It should be noted that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has announced a possible civil disobedience movement against the government, which has been temporarily postponed on the instructions of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and its new date has not been announced yet.
Some members of the second-generation federal government have already warned that the PTI wants to use the threat of the civil disobedience movement to put pressure on the government, which will make it difficult to hold any kind of talks.
However, the question is whether the talks between the government and the opposition will be able to progress much in such an environment. Is the government in a position to give any guarantees to the opposition on these demands of the PTI and if not, why is the PTI feeling the need to talk to the government at this time?
Why talk at this time?
Political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says that there could be two reasons for this. In his opinion, former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party has tried the tactic of holding protests and demonstrations many times, without much success.
‘Thus, what they wanted to achieve through street agitation could not be achieved, they could not prevail over the government. That is why they are now reviewing their strategy.’
Hassan Askari Rizvi believes that there are many people inside and outside the PTI who have been advising their leadership to try the option of negotiations for a long time.
‘The ability to satisfy demands through public power is decreasing’
Journalist and analyst Majid Nizami also agrees that a major factor in bringing the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to the negotiating table at this time is the fact that after repeated protests and demonstrations, ‘their ability to satisfy demands through public power is decreasing.’
However, the question is, if the PTI was feeling this way, why did it announce the launch of a civil disobedience movement?
Analyst Majid Nizami says that there is very little room for a movement like civil disobedience in Pakistani society.
‘The PTI is using this for pressure. Negotiations will continue even after starting or conducting any such movement.’
He believes that the PTI will use the civil disobedience movement as a bargaining chip.
Pros and Cons of 'Imran Khan’s Release May Be the Last Step'
Pros:
1. Strategic Resolution: Imran Khan’s release at the end of negotiations could symbolize the success of talks, ensuring political stability.
2. Pressure on PTI: Keeps PTI motivated to comply with terms set during negotiations, fostering cooperation.
3. Reduction in Political Tensions: Finalizing his release may pacify political turmoil and protests.
4. Stronger Institutional Authority: Demonstrates that the government follows due process rather than yielding to pressure.
Cons:
1. Delays in Trust Building: PTI supporters may view delayed release as an act of bad faith, prolonging mistrust.
2. Public Backlash: Extended incarceration could trigger nationwide protests and unrest, affecting governance.
3. Risk of Deadlock: If negotiations fail before the final step, the impasse may worsen.
4. Weakened Opposition Morale: Delayed release could demoralize PTI leaders and supporters, polarizing the political landscape further.
After several days of efforts, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the federal government of Pakistan succeeded in holding the first negotiation meeting at Parliament House on Monday.
Almost all the members of the government-nominated negotiation committee were present in the meeting, but only three members from the PTI attended the meeting. They were Asad Qaiser, Sahibzada Hamid Raza and Raja Nasir Abbas.
Those who did not attend included Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Omar Ayub, Salman Akram Raja, Hamid Khan and Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Ali Amin Gandapur.
The statement issued after the meeting quoted Asad Qaiser as saying that “some of these members could not attend the negotiation meeting due to appearances in cases, court engagements and being out of the country.”
According to the statement, both committees expressed their willingness to continue the negotiations and agreed to convene the next meeting on January 2, in which the opposition “will submit its demands to the government in writing.”
According to the statement, the meeting “was held in a conducive atmosphere and both sides emphasized the need to resolve the issues through dialogue.”
Speaking to local media after the meeting, PTI leader Asad Qaiser said that he had requested the government to facilitate his meeting with former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is in jail, which was accepted.
He said that his demands were clearly put forward in the meeting, the top of which is the demand for the release of political prisoners including Imran Khan.
He also demanded that the government conduct an inquiry into the incidents of May 9 and November 26.
Asad Qaiser said that this was the initial round of negotiations, while the negotiations will officially begin from the meeting on January 2.
Opposition Leader in the National Assembly Omar Ayub also spoke to media representatives regarding the negotiation meeting and said that his party’s demands are clear.
In addition to the demands put forward by Asad Qaiser, he said that his party also demands that the government recognize its electoral mandate and that new elections should be held.
It should be noted that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has announced a possible civil disobedience movement against the government, which has been temporarily postponed on the instructions of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and its new date has not been announced yet.
Some members of the second-generation federal government have already warned that the PTI wants to use the threat of the civil disobedience movement to put pressure on the government, which will make it difficult to hold any kind of talks.
However, the question is whether the talks between the government and the opposition will be able to progress much in such an environment. Is the government in a position to give any guarantees to the opposition on these demands of the PTI and if not, why is the PTI feeling the need to talk to the government at this time?
Why talk at this time?
Political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says that there could be two reasons for this. In his opinion, former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party has tried the tactic of holding protests and demonstrations many times, without much success.
‘Thus, what they wanted to achieve through street agitation could not be achieved, they could not prevail over the government. That is why they are now reviewing their strategy.’
Hassan Askari Rizvi believes that there are many people inside and outside the PTI who have been advising their leadership to try the option of negotiations for a long time.
‘The ability to satisfy demands through public power is decreasing’
Journalist and analyst Majid Nizami also agrees that a major factor in bringing the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to the negotiating table at this time is the fact that after repeated protests and demonstrations, ‘their ability to satisfy demands through public power is decreasing.’
However, the question is, if the PTI was feeling this way, why did it announce the launch of a civil disobedience movement?
Analyst Majid Nizami says that there is very little room for a movement like civil disobedience in Pakistani society.
‘The PTI is using this for pressure. Negotiations will continue even after starting or conducting any such movement.’
He believes that the PTI will use the civil disobedience movement as a bargaining chip.
What can the government offer on PTI’s demands?
Analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says the government will never accept such a large number of PTI demands in the first place.
“They would like PTI to first present its demands and then try to compromise on some of them.”
Journalist and analyst Majid Nizami says that it will not be possible to meet a large number of demands in the first phase. He says that it is important for both parties to start with small demands to create a conducive environment.
He says that “Imran Khan’s release can be the last phase of the negotiations, it cannot be the first.” Majid Nizami believes that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf also realizes this.
He believes that if an atmosphere of trust is created, issues such as not filing more cases with the government, reducing or ending political arrests and showing leniency on the part of the prosecution can be considered.
What can the PTI give the government in return?
Analyst Majid Nizami says that the two big bargaining chips that the PTI currently has can be used as an offer on its part in negotiations with the government.
“It can offer the government things like a peaceful political environment and a reduction or elimination of anti-government activities abroad.”
However, analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says that he thinks the government will want many steps from the PTI, which may include first recognizing the PTI elections.
“They will want the PTI to recognize their government as the legitimate government and to move forward by recognizing these elections.”
He says that the government will also tell the PTI that the PTI will have to face cases related to the incidents of May 9 and November 26 in the courts.
In their view, the government will also place a condition before the PTI in its demands that it will end the politics of repeated protests and sit-ins.
However, the question is whether the PTI will be able to accept only the government’s guarantees on all these points and other similar issues.
PTI leaders have expressed many times that they would like to hold talks with those who hold real power. They are referring to the military establishment.
‘No decision will be possible without the establishment’s blessing’
Analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says there is no doubt that the government will want the will of the military establishment to be included before deciding on any demand of the PTI.
‘It will not be possible for the government to decide on any demand on its own without the establishment’s blessing.’
He says that this is the reason why wherever November 26 is mentioned, the government definitely mentions May 9. It will keep the military establishment on board.
Analyst Majeed Nizami also agrees with this. He says that there is a feeling on both sides. ‘Both of them are 100 percent sure that no progress will be made without the establishment’s will. This is the reason why all the parties involved in the government alliance have been kept together.’
Majid Nizami believes that matters will be taken forward only after taking feedback from the institutions.
What will be the future of such negotiations?
Journalist and analyst Majid Nizami says that given Pakistan's uncertain political situation and similar situations in the past, "it is not possible to make any predictions about the future of the talks."
However, analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi says that given the current political environment in Pakistan, the future of the talks looks quite uncertain.
"The chances of failure seem greater than success. If you look at the current political leadership, it seems that no one is ready to compromise."
However, he believes that if the talks between the two parties are successful, it will increase the chances of political and economic stability in Pakistan.
Related Topics
#Pakistan_Army #Pakistan_Muslim_League #Pakistan_Tehreek_e_Insaf #Pakistan #Politics #Shehbaz_Sharif #Imran_Khan
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