War in Aleppo Challenges and Opportunities for Iran Amid Regional Crises

War in Aleppo: Has the situation become difficult for Iran in Syria, in addition to Gaza and Lebanon?

War in Aleppo Challenges and Opportunities for Iran Amid Regional Crises

Khushayyar Janadi

Aheda, BBC Persian

Pros and Cons of the Situation in Aleppo for Iran

Pros:

1. Strategic Influence:  

   - Aleppo remains a key stronghold in Syria, crucial for maintaining Iran’s influence over the Assad regime.  

   - Control over Aleppo strengthens Iran’s regional alliance, known as the “Axis of Resistance.”  

2. Supply Lines:

   - Aleppo's position helps secure critical supply routes from Iran to Lebanon via Syria, ensuring logistical support for Hezbollah.  

3. Political Leverage:

   - A presence in Aleppo enhances Iran’s bargaining power in regional negotiations and peace talks.  

4. Proxy Strengthening: 

   - Iran can continue supporting its proxies, reinforcing its strategic objectives across the Middle East.  

Cons:

1. Military Strain:

   - Engaging in multiple fronts (Syria, Gaza, Lebanon) stretches Iran’s military resources and could lead to overextension.  

2. Economic Pressure: 

   - The prolonged conflict in Aleppo, combined with sanctions, drains Iran’s financial resources, affecting its domestic economy.  

3. Regional Isolation: 

   - Increased involvement in Syria risks further alienating Iran from regional powers and intensifying geopolitical tensions.  

4. Local Backlash: 

   - Iran’s presence in Aleppo may provoke resentment from local Syrian factions, potentially leading to more resistance.  

5. Risk of Escalation:

   - The situation in Aleppo could escalate into a broader conflict, involving international powers and complicating Iran’s strategic calculus.  

Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, has fallen from the hands of the Syrian regime's forces after a rapid offensive by armed militias opposed to President Bashar al-Assad.

The Syrian army has admitted that rebels have entered "large parts" of Aleppo.

The militants, mainly members of Tahrir al-Sham (an Islamist group) and other allied jihadist groups, took control of the city in less than 72 hours.

When the Syrian army captured Aleppo eight years ago, its residents supported Bashar al-Assad's forces.

Iran, led by Qassem Soleimani, fought for months to retake it with the help of the Russian air force and Shiite militias.

The recapture of Aleppo in 2016 played a key role in consolidating Bashar al-Assad's position in Syria's 13-year civil war.

Now focused on the war in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force is unable to provide air support to Syria as it once did, and Israeli attacks in recent months have weakened the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, making it difficult for the Syrian army to defend itself in the city and surrounding areas.

After fourteen months of conflict in the Middle East, the situation has become difficult for the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies, not only in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, but also in Syria.

Anti-Iranian protests in Istanbul in 2016 and after the recapture of Aleppo

The recapture of Aleppo would not have been possible without the Russian Air Force, Hezbollah, and the command of Qassem Soleimani

On December 16, 2016, a group of Islamists marched towards the Iranian Consulate General in Istanbul after Friday prayers to protest against the Islamic Republic of Iran's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The police set up barriers to prevent the protesters from approaching the Iranian Consulate, but journalists' cameras captured photos of the protesters holding placards with anti-Iranian slogans.

By then, the armed opposition to Bashar al-Assad had conceded defeat in Aleppo after months of fighting, and the Syrian army had fully captured the city after four years.

The recapture of Aleppo would not have been possible without the Russian Air Force, the Revolutionary Guards, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed militias under the command of Qassem Soleimani.

The defeat of the anti-Assad opposition was a cause for concern for Ankara, as a large part of this group was supported by the Turkish government.

That same day, as I was driving to the Iranian Consulate General in Istanbul to report on Islamist protests in Turkey, the driver with a long white beard asked me, “What have we done to you Iranians?”

Qassem Soleimani's image can be seen in areas of Aleppo that have fallen into opposition control

When Turkish Foreign Minister Calls Iranian Counterpart 'My Brother'

Relations between Ankara and Tehran were strained in 2015 and 2016 due to the Syrian civil war. Other countries also contributed to the Syrian civil war, but the fire of hostility flared between Iran and Turkey.

The failed coup of 2016 and Iran’s support for Erdogan helped to improve bilateral relations to the point that during Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s first visit to Ankara after the coup, his counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu called him “my brother Javad.”

But while Ankara was easing tensions in its relations with Tehran and Moscow, the competition between them in Syria continued.

During these years, Iran managed to reach a nuclear deal with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and the world’s major powers (the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany) and also increased its influence regionally, expanding its presence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

At that time, Iranian military commanders sought to establish the Islamic Republic’s ‘strategic depth’ near the Mediterranean coast and the borders of Israel… Other regional powers, including Turkey, were concerned about Iran’s growing influence in the region.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah’s support for Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war played a key role in the Syrian government’s success

Rethinking ‘Strategic Depth’

Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the application of a policy of maximum pressure damaged the Islamic Republic financially.

An even bigger blow was the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.

But other factors that have damaged the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regional influence in the Middle East in recent years include Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, several of the group’s senior commanders, and other attacks, including the pager bombings (which would not have been possible without detailed intelligence planning), dealt a major blow to Iran. This forced Iran to rethink its ‘strategic depth.’

For years, Israel has been targeting Iranian-backed militia groups in Lebanon and Syria, and has succeeded in targeting key military and nuclear figures in addition to intelligence operations inside Iran.

But the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was one of the biggest setbacks for Iran.

On the other hand, the intensity of attacks on the positions of Iran’s most important proxies, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah, in Syria has left Iran in its weakest position in the region over the past decade.

Turkey and Syria

Despite a 13-year-old feud, Ankara has shown willingness to negotiate with Damascus in recent months.

Three weeks ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope for improved relations with Bashar al-Assad, but Syria is not happy with Turkey’s diplomatic signals.

Although the attack on Aleppo was blamed on the Syrian Revolutionary Guard and other Islamist armed groups, there have also been reports of the presence of Turkish-backed militias based in Idlib.

If these reports are correct, it can be said that Erdogan’s patience has paid off after eight years of fighting in Aleppo.

This time, Russia is busy with Ukraine and its military cannot help Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah lack the strategic and logistical capabilities.

There is no doubt that the situation in Syria today is more complicated than a game of chess between Iran and Turkey.

The way the Kurdish militia is defending the Kurds of Aleppo, these and many other factors could turn the tide of the war.

Israel's successive attacks in recent months have greatly weakened Iran's capabilities in the power game in the region... Especially in Syria and Lebanon. And even if Bashar al-Assad's opponents are expelled from Aleppo in the near future, the Islamic Republic of Iran's 'strategic depth' will not be found anywhere on the Mediterranean coast as soon as Donald Trump becomes president in the United States.

Related Topics

#Syria #Iran #General_Qassem_Soleimani #Turkey