How close is Iran to building a nuclear bomb?
In recent weeks, people in Iran, the United States and Israel have repeatedly said that Iran will build a nuclear weapon
Iran’s Path to a Nuclear Bomb What You Need to Know
Pros (from Iran's Perspective):
1. Increased Deterrence: A nuclear weapon could enhance Iran's security by deterring potential military actions from rival states.
2. Geopolitical Leverage: Possessing nuclear capabilities might increase Iran's influence in the Middle East and on the global stage.
3. Domestic Support: Achieving nuclear status could boost national pride and strengthen internal political cohesion.
4. Negotiation Power: Iran could use its nuclear status to negotiate more favorable terms in international agreements.
Cons (Global and Regional Perspective)
1. Regional Instability: A nuclear-armed Iran could trigger an arms race in the Middle East, increasing tensions and instability.
2. Economic Sanctions: Iran may face harsher international sanctions, further isolating its economy and impacting its citizens.
3. Global Security Risks: The proliferation of nuclear weapons raises concerns about potential conflicts and the risk of nuclear war.
4. Diplomatic Isolation: Many countries may sever diplomatic ties, leaving Iran politically isolated.
5. Humanitarian Concerns: The use or threat of nuclear weapons poses catastrophic risks to human life and the environment.
During the recent tensions in the Middle East, the world's eyes are also focused on Iran's nuclear program and world powers are trying to estimate how close Tehran is to building an atomic bomb.
Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium has reached 60% and technically Iran is only one step away from using it to build a nuclear weapon.
After the failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran completely ignored the agreement on the fixed limit of uranium enrichment and the level of enriched uranium it has is increasing with each passing day.
It should be noted that the JCPOA was an agreement between Iran, the United States and other world powers that was signed in 2015. Under this agreement, the sanctions imposed on Iran were to be eased and Iran was to limit its nuclear program in return.
What is ‘nuclear escape time’?
The period between current preparations and the creation of a nuclear weapon is called ‘nuclear escape time’. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, a nuclear bomb can be made after 25 kilograms of enriched uranium are produced.
The journey of any country’s peaceful nuclear program from becoming a military nuclear program is measured by ‘nuclear escape time’.
Many factors are monitored to measure ‘nuclear escape time’, such as what the uranium enrichment infrastructure is like, how much enriched uranium a country has, and what is the pace of uranium enrichment.
It is only by taking all these factors into account that it is estimated how far a country is from making a nuclear bomb.
The current preparations and the period until a nuclear weapon is made is called the ‘nuclear escape time’.
How long will it take for Iran to make a nuclear bomb?
How long will it take for Iran’s nuclear program to succeed in making a nuclear weapon? There are many estimates being made in this regard, but Iran says that its nuclear program is for peace.
Due to the recent tension in the Middle East and the direct conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation about Tehran’s nuclear program is once again being heard.
At the same time, some Iranian officials are also demanding a change in the country’s defense doctrine. According to many estimates, Iran will be able to make an atom in a very short time, but observers say that the nature of these estimates and comments may also be political.
In recent weeks, people in Iran, the United States and Israel have said several times that Iran will make a nuclear weapon in 48 or 24 hours.
But Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Strategic Intelligence Institute in Washington, says that Iran's claims about a nuclear cleanup time are being "exaggerated" and that it is a "disturbing" process.
However, he also says that Iran is not far from building a nuclear bomb.
Fitzpatrick told BBC Persian that “every researcher and expert in the US, the UK and other Western countries is saying that Iran’s nuclear escape time is a week. It’s not 24 hours, it’s not a day. But even a week is a very short time.”
Senior US officials and security and nuclear watchdogs also confirm that claims about Iran’s time to build a nuclear bomb have been in the news for months.
Speaking at the Spain Security Forum in July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran was now “only a week or two away” from building a nuclear weapon after the collapse of the nuclear deal with Iran.
This was the shortest time given by any US official.
The Institute of Science and International Security has been monitoring Iran’s nuclear program for the past two decades and on November 21 this year, it said in its report that Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent and can produce 25 kilograms of uranium in a week or less to make a nuclear weapon.
The institute analyzed the International Atomic Energy Agency report and concluded that Iran’s current uranium and centrifuges are capable of providing the country with “the necessary material to make 10 nuclear weapons” in a month.
Mark Fitzpatrick says that the most worrying thing is that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has reached 60 percent and “has no normal use and will only be made into bombs.”
He says that “Iran has 60 percent enriched uranium and can increase it to 90 percent to make six nuclear bombs.”
Experts say Iran faces technical problems in making any kind of atom
How much enriched uranium does Iran have?
During Donald Trump’s first term as president, the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and adopted a policy of using ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran.
Under the deal, Iran was limited to 67.3% enriched uranium and was also told not to increase its uranium stockpile by more than 300 kg.
But in the past few years, Iran has increased its stockpile of enriched uranium by using modern centrifuges.
It should be noted that some time ago, Iran announced that it would speed up the process of enriching uranium ‘through modern machinery’.
However, Iranian officials did not give details on how they intend to speed up this process.
What happens after uranium enrichment?
Producing weapons-grade uranium is an important step, but it is not enough to make a bomb.
Mark Fitzpatrick says that the ‘nuclear escape time’ refers to the period in which a country is able to produce enough uranium to make a nuclear weapon, but even then, ‘it will take Iran a few months to use this material to make a nuclear weapon.’
He added that ‘it also takes a few months to install this weapon on a missile’, and therefore he estimates that it will take Iran about a year to make a usable nuclear weapon.
Uranium plants produce the material used for nuclear weapons in the form of hexafluoride. This material is then further refined to make a bomb.
It is a very complex process, requiring special machinery and specialized skills.
Some time ago, Iran announced that it would accelerate the process of enriching uranium with ‘modern machinery’.
However, experts say that Iran faces technical problems in making any kind of atom. They also say that after years of research, Iran has developed such an infrastructure through its ‘Emad program’ that can help the country make nuclear weapons.
The Institute of Science and International Security said in its report that ‘even after the end of the Emad program, Iran is facing problems in making a warhead that it can install on its Shahab-3 ballistic missile.’
The institute said in a report that Iran can obtain nuclear weapons in two ways:
Emergency plan: Iran can produce a nuclear bomb weapon in less than six months. This bomb will not be capable of being used by a large rocket but it can be used for experiments.
Reconstruction of the uranium production complex: This method will be similar to the ‘Emad program’ and under it, a warhead that can be installed on a missile can be made in about two years.
What further steps will Iran have to take to make a nuclear weapon?
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote in a research report on November 25 that after enriching uranium, it could take Iran a few months to a year to make a nuclear weapon.
According to the report, this work is done in three stages.
Designing and assembling the components: Iran will first have to create an explosive device using various useful components that have the ability to absorb uranium and install a neutron initiator in it that can activate the weapon.
Cold test: After this process, Iran will have to conduct a cold test in which regular uranium will be used instead of enriched uranium. The purpose of this test is to test the deion of the bomb.
Mounting the warhead on a missile: Developing a weapon that can be mounted on a missile would also be a major challenge for Iran.
With the recent tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation about Tehran's nuclear program is once again being heard.
What other difficulties does Iran face in building an atomic bomb?
There are still many obstacles to Iran's ability to build an atom or nuclear bomb. Mark Fitzpatrick says that once it has all the necessary materials, it will be very difficult for Iran to hide the fact that it is building a bomb with this material.
He says that 'Iran will not be able to hide the fact that it is enriching uranium to 90 percent. Israel has said that it will not allow Iran to build a nuclear bomb, and the United States has also said that it will not allow Iran to do so.'
Fitzpatrick says that before Iran installs its weapon on a missile, 'it (Iran) will definitely be the target of a military attack.'
Israel considers Iran's nuclear program a threat to its national security. Israel has previously attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007.
On November 18 of this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had targeted a “specific part” of Iran’s nuclear program in its attack.
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