The 'incredible' advance of the Syrian rebels that put Bashar al-Assad and Russia in trouble
How to Evaluate Russia's Role in the Syrian Conflict
Jeremy BowenAppointment, International EditorPros:
1. Rebel Gains and Increased Influence:
- The rebels’ advances could shift the balance of power, increasing their leverage in negotiations or peace talks. 2. Humanitarian Impact:
- Rebel control of certain areas may improve access for humanitarian aid, depending on the situation. 3. Reduced Authoritarian Control:
- Diminishing Assad’s hold on territories may lead to reduced government oppression in those regions. 4. Pressure on Russia’s Regional Influence
- If Russia struggles to support Assad, its geopolitical influence in the Middle East may weaken. Cons:
1. Escalation of Conflict
- Rebel advances may lead to increased fighting, causing further civilian casualties and displacement. 2. Political Instability:
- Shifts in territorial control could result in fragmented governance, creating power vacuums exploited by extremist groups. 3. Strained International Relations:
- The conflict may strain relations between countries backing different sides, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Western powers. 4. Economic Impact:
- Ongoing instability could further damage Syria’s economy, delaying reconstruction and recovery efforts.
The renewed war in Syria is a continuation of the conflict that has gripped the Middle East since Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7 last year.
The Hamas attack and the subsequent Israeli response broke the deadlock in the region. The events in Syria in the past few days are clear evidence that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not stopping, but is intensifying.
Despite almost a decade of war since 2011, Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad was able to maintain his power, and this was because he was willing to break up the country to save the government he inherited from his father.
He relied on powerful allies such as Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who helped Syria deal with groups supported by the US and wealthy Middle Eastern countries, including the so-called Islamic State.
But then Iran faced Israeli attacks, while Hezbollah, which used to send its best fighters to fight in Syria, also suffered heavy losses due to Israeli attacks. Russia has carried out airstrikes against rebels in Syria in the past few days, but its military power is completely focused on Ukraine.
The war in Syria was not over. Yes, it was true that the Syrian civil war could not maintain its place in the headlines amid regional and international conflicts. One reason for this was that it was almost impossible for journalists to go and report in Syria. The war was suspended in a few places, but this matter remained incomplete.
Bashar al-Assad’s government has not regained the full power it had in 2011, although its prisons were full of prisoners. But until recently, Bashar al-Assad controlled Syria’s major cities and main highways.
But after November 27, a coalition of rebel groups called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emerged from Idlib province, which borders Turkey, and within a few days, inflicted a crushing defeat on the Syrian army, which a senior international diplomat described as “unbelievable” when speaking to me.
Two days after the lightning attack, images of fighters began to emerge from the Old City of Aleppo, which was considered the “impregnable base” of the Syrian army from 2012 to 2015. At that time, the city was the center of fighting between government forces and rebels.
The atmosphere after the capture of Aleppo and the defeat of the Syrian army seemed relatively calm. In one image circulating on social media, armed fighters in uniform were seen waiting in lines for fried chicken at a fast food restaurant.
The group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, parted ways with al-Qaeda in 2016 and at one point even fought with them. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is designated a “terrorist group” by the United Nations Security Council, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
The group's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has a long history in Iraq and Syria. In recent years, he has sought to build a wider base of support for his group, moving away from jihadist ideology. The group now avoids using Islamic or jihadist ideology in its language and statements.
Mana al-Lami, a specialist in jihadist media for the BBC Monitoring, says Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is trying to distance itself from its past and present its attacks as a form of resistance to the Syrian government.
Syrians are not averse to extremist jihadist ideology. After the anti-government protests of 2011, when the pro-democracy protests took over from jihadist groups, many Syrians either distanced themselves from it or were forced to support the government because they feared extremist ideology like the Islamic State.
The latest offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is part of the political landscape in northern Syria. The northwest is dominated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are backed by the United States. There are also 900 US troops stationed in the region.
Turkey is also a major player in the conflict, with troops stationed on the border and supporting some militant groups.
Reports from Syria suggest that the rebels have captured a large amount of military equipment, including government helicopters, and are now moving towards Hama, the next major city on the road to Damascus.
There is no doubt that the Syrian government and its allies will retaliate with air power. The rebels do not have an air force. However, there are reports that the rebels have killed a senior Syrian intelligence officer with the help of a drone.
The situation in Syria is raising alarm bells internationally. The UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, said in a statement that “the latest developments pose a threat to civilians and could have serious implications for regional and international security.” He said the Syrian conflict could not be resolved by military force.
He also said that the UN Security Council had failed to implement a 2015 resolution that set out a peace plan. It stipulated that the Syrian people would decide the future of the country.
The resolution was intended to hold free elections and a new constitution. But implementing the resolution would require Bashar al-Assad and his family to step down.
However, it would be premature to say at this point that Bashar al-Assad’s rule is in jeopardy. He enjoys considerable support. Many Syrians see his government as the least bad option, at least compared to the jihadists who have taken over the rebel leadership.
However, if other opposition groups rise up against him, and there are enough of them, then Bashar al-Assad's rule could be truly threatened.Related Topics
#Syria #Middle_East #War
Pros:
1. Rebel Gains and Increased Influence:
- The rebels’ advances could shift the balance of power, increasing their leverage in negotiations or peace talks.
2. Humanitarian Impact:
- Rebel control of certain areas may improve access for humanitarian aid, depending on the situation.
3. Reduced Authoritarian Control:
- Diminishing Assad’s hold on territories may lead to reduced government oppression in those regions.
4. Pressure on Russia’s Regional Influence
- If Russia struggles to support Assad, its geopolitical influence in the Middle East may weaken.
Cons:
1. Escalation of Conflict
- Rebel advances may lead to increased fighting, causing further civilian casualties and displacement.
2. Political Instability:
- Shifts in territorial control could result in fragmented governance, creating power vacuums exploited by extremist groups.
3. Strained International Relations:
- The conflict may strain relations between countries backing different sides, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Western powers.
4. Economic Impact:
- Ongoing instability could further damage Syria’s economy, delaying reconstruction and recovery efforts.
The renewed war in Syria is a continuation of the conflict that has gripped the Middle East since Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7 last year.
The Hamas attack and the subsequent Israeli response broke the deadlock in the region. The events in Syria in the past few days are clear evidence that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not stopping, but is intensifying.
Despite almost a decade of war since 2011, Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad was able to maintain his power, and this was because he was willing to break up the country to save the government he inherited from his father.
He relied on powerful allies such as Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who helped Syria deal with groups supported by the US and wealthy Middle Eastern countries, including the so-called Islamic State.
But then Iran faced Israeli attacks, while Hezbollah, which used to send its best fighters to fight in Syria, also suffered heavy losses due to Israeli attacks. Russia has carried out airstrikes against rebels in Syria in the past few days, but its military power is completely focused on Ukraine.
The war in Syria was not over. Yes, it was true that the Syrian civil war could not maintain its place in the headlines amid regional and international conflicts. One reason for this was that it was almost impossible for journalists to go and report in Syria. The war was suspended in a few places, but this matter remained incomplete.
Bashar al-Assad’s government has not regained the full power it had in 2011, although its prisons were full of prisoners. But until recently, Bashar al-Assad controlled Syria’s major cities and main highways.
But after November 27, a coalition of rebel groups called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emerged from Idlib province, which borders Turkey, and within a few days, inflicted a crushing defeat on the Syrian army, which a senior international diplomat described as “unbelievable” when speaking to me.
Two days after the lightning attack, images of fighters began to emerge from the Old City of Aleppo, which was considered the “impregnable base” of the Syrian army from 2012 to 2015. At that time, the city was the center of fighting between government forces and rebels.
The atmosphere after the capture of Aleppo and the defeat of the Syrian army seemed relatively calm. In one image circulating on social media, armed fighters in uniform were seen waiting in lines for fried chicken at a fast food restaurant.
The group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, parted ways with al-Qaeda in 2016 and at one point even fought with them. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is designated a “terrorist group” by the United Nations Security Council, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
The group's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has a long history in Iraq and Syria. In recent years, he has sought to build a wider base of support for his group, moving away from jihadist ideology. The group now avoids using Islamic or jihadist ideology in its language and statements.
Mana al-Lami, a specialist in jihadist media for the BBC Monitoring, says Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is trying to distance itself from its past and present its attacks as a form of resistance to the Syrian government.
Syrians are not averse to extremist jihadist ideology. After the anti-government protests of 2011, when the pro-democracy protests took over from jihadist groups, many Syrians either distanced themselves from it or were forced to support the government because they feared extremist ideology like the Islamic State.
The latest offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is part of the political landscape in northern Syria. The northwest is dominated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are backed by the United States. There are also 900 US troops stationed in the region.
Turkey is also a major player in the conflict, with troops stationed on the border and supporting some militant groups.
Reports from Syria suggest that the rebels have captured a large amount of military equipment, including government helicopters, and are now moving towards Hama, the next major city on the road to Damascus.
There is no doubt that the Syrian government and its allies will retaliate with air power. The rebels do not have an air force. However, there are reports that the rebels have killed a senior Syrian intelligence officer with the help of a drone.
The situation in Syria is raising alarm bells internationally. The UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, said in a statement that “the latest developments pose a threat to civilians and could have serious implications for regional and international security.” He said the Syrian conflict could not be resolved by military force.
He also said that the UN Security Council had failed to implement a 2015 resolution that set out a peace plan. It stipulated that the Syrian people would decide the future of the country.
The resolution was intended to hold free elections and a new constitution. But implementing the resolution would require Bashar al-Assad and his family to step down.
However, it would be premature to say at this point that Bashar al-Assad’s rule is in jeopardy. He enjoys considerable support. Many Syrians see his government as the least bad option, at least compared to the jihadists who have taken over the rebel leadership.
However, if other opposition groups rise up against him, and there are enough of them, then Bashar al-Assad's rule could be truly threatened.
Related Topics
#Syria #Middle_East #War
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