Foreign interests, oil wells and authoritarian rule: Why is it difficult to end the civil war in Syria?
How Does Oil Influence the Dynamics of the Syrian Conflict?
Louis BaruchoAhad, BBC World Service5 December 2024Pros of Ending the Civil War in Syria:
1. Humanitarian Relief: A resolution would significantly reduce human suffering, including casualties, displacement, and the refugee crisis. 2. Economic Recovery: Peace would allow for rebuilding Syria’s economy and infrastructure, fostering growth and job creation. 3. Political Stability: A peaceful settlement could lead to a more stable government and potential democratic reforms. 4. Regional Stability: Ending the war would ease tensions across the Middle East, improving diplomatic relations and security in neighboring countries. 5. International Cooperation: A resolution could enhance global cooperation and reduce military interventions in Syria.Cons of Ending the Civil War in Syria:
1. Foreign Interference: Competing interests of external powers, such as Russia, the U.S., Turkey, and Iran, make peace negotiations complex. 2. Resource Competition: Control over Syria’s oil-rich regions remains a contentious issue, with various factions vying for dominance. 3. Authoritarian Rule: The Assad regime's reluctance to share power and ongoing suppression of opposition groups hinder progress toward peace. 4. Fragmented Opposition: The lack of unity among opposition groups complicates efforts to form a cohesive government post-conflict. 5. Security Risks: A fragile peace process may lead to resurgence of extremist groups, threatening long-term stability.
Rebel militants in Syria have launched their first major offensive against government forces in years, dispelling the impression that their military might had been exhausted.
Backed by a surprise attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, rebel forces have captured Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, forcing government forces to retreat.
Another result of the offensive was that Russia carried out its first air strikes in Syria since 2016, targeting rebels in Aleppo.
The renewed fighting, 14 years after the start of the Syrian civil war, has raised concerns that the conflict will not end easily. Since 2018, Syria has been divided into three parts due to civil war.
On one side are areas controlled by the government of President Bashar al-Assad, on the other hand, Islamist rebels, and a third area is under the control of the Kurds.
But what are the reasons why the civil war in Syria is so difficult to end?External Powers and Interests
Syria has become a global chessboard where opposing powers are helping local allies achieve their strategic goals.
On one side is the government of Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Iran and Russia, and on the other are armed opposition groups, which are backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
As the conflict has escalated, extremist groups such as the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda have also entered the fray, and global concerns have also grown.
Syria’s Kurds are eager to establish their own government with the help of American support, which adds to the complexity of the crisis. Russia and Iran have played a key role in keeping Bashar al-Assad’s government in power, while Turkey has been supporting armed groups near its border in the north.
US soldiers patrol near oil installations near Syria's northeastern border on September 3, 2024.
In 2020, Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire in Idlib and established a security corridor for joint patrols. Although the deal ended large-scale fighting, the Syrian government has not regained full control.
In the current situation, the rebels have re-energized, taking advantage of the weak government, as Bashar al-Assad’s main backers, Russia and Iran, are embroiled in other conflicts.
Dr Simon Frankel Pratt is a senior lecturer in political science at the University of Melbourne. “The Assad regime had been heavily dependent on external support for many years, but the damage to Hezbollah as a result of Israeli operations and Russia’s focus on Ukraine left the Syrian regime isolated, and that was when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham suddenly launched an offensive and began seizing territory,” he says.
The renewed fighting is said to be due to unresolved local instability in the north, as well as a lack of external support on which Bashar al-Assad had been dependent.
Pros of Ending the Civil War in Syria:
1. Humanitarian Relief: A resolution would significantly reduce human suffering, including casualties, displacement, and the refugee crisis.
2. Economic Recovery: Peace would allow for rebuilding Syria’s economy and infrastructure, fostering growth and job creation.
3. Political Stability: A peaceful settlement could lead to a more stable government and potential democratic reforms.
4. Regional Stability: Ending the war would ease tensions across the Middle East, improving diplomatic relations and security in neighboring countries.
5. International Cooperation: A resolution could enhance global cooperation and reduce military interventions in Syria.
Cons of Ending the Civil War in Syria:
1. Foreign Interference: Competing interests of external powers, such as Russia, the U.S., Turkey, and Iran, make peace negotiations complex.
2. Resource Competition: Control over Syria’s oil-rich regions remains a contentious issue, with various factions vying for dominance.
3. Authoritarian Rule: The Assad regime's reluctance to share power and ongoing suppression of opposition groups hinder progress toward peace.
4. Fragmented Opposition: The lack of unity among opposition groups complicates efforts to form a cohesive government post-conflict.
5. Security Risks: A fragile peace process may lead to resurgence of extremist groups, threatening long-term stability.
Rebel militants in Syria have launched their first major offensive against government forces in years, dispelling the impression that their military might had been exhausted.
Backed by a surprise attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, rebel forces have captured Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, forcing government forces to retreat.
Another result of the offensive was that Russia carried out its first air strikes in Syria since 2016, targeting rebels in Aleppo.
The renewed fighting, 14 years after the start of the Syrian civil war, has raised concerns that the conflict will not end easily. Since 2018, Syria has been divided into three parts due to civil war.
On one side are areas controlled by the government of President Bashar al-Assad, on the other hand, Islamist rebels, and a third area is under the control of the Kurds.
But what are the reasons why the civil war in Syria is so difficult to end?
External Powers and Interests
Syria has become a global chessboard where opposing powers are helping local allies achieve their strategic goals.
On one side is the government of Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Iran and Russia, and on the other are armed opposition groups, which are backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
As the conflict has escalated, extremist groups such as the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda have also entered the fray, and global concerns have also grown.
Syria’s Kurds are eager to establish their own government with the help of American support, which adds to the complexity of the crisis. Russia and Iran have played a key role in keeping Bashar al-Assad’s government in power, while Turkey has been supporting armed groups near its border in the north.
US soldiers patrol near oil installations near Syria's northeastern border on September 3, 2024.
In 2020, Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire in Idlib and established a security corridor for joint patrols. Although the deal ended large-scale fighting, the Syrian government has not regained full control.
In the current situation, the rebels have re-energized, taking advantage of the weak government, as Bashar al-Assad’s main backers, Russia and Iran, are embroiled in other conflicts.
Dr Simon Frankel Pratt is a senior lecturer in political science at the University of Melbourne. “The Assad regime had been heavily dependent on external support for many years, but the damage to Hezbollah as a result of Israeli operations and Russia’s focus on Ukraine left the Syrian regime isolated, and that was when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham suddenly launched an offensive and began seizing territory,” he says.
The renewed fighting is said to be due to unresolved local instability in the north, as well as a lack of external support on which Bashar al-Assad had been dependent.
Economic and humanitarian crisis
Syria has been devastated by years of civil war, with the economy in a shambles and millions of people affected. The path to recovery is unclear.
According to the United Nations, Syria’s population was 22 million before the war, half of whom have been displaced. About 2 million people still live in camps without basic facilities. 6 million have fled the country to Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. More than 5 million Syrians are refugees in Turkey alone.
Emanuel Asch is World Vision’s Syria response director. “The situation is unclear because fighting is ongoing in many places and the number of affected people could increase,” he says.
According to him, affected people are moving to different locations and he fears that “they will head to camps where there are already 2 million people.” There is no room for more people.’
Before the current conflict, more than 15 million people in Syria were in need of humanitarian assistance, a huge number.
12 million people were facing food shortages. The earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023 further worsened the situation. Nearly six thousand people died in Syria and more than eight million were affected.
Control of oil fields and trade routes is among the economic interests that fuel the conflict and is another reason for the fighting in the country.
Authoritarian rule
The government of Bashar al-Assad has relied on violence and repression to maintain power, which has not only prolonged the conflict but also increased public anger against him.
According to a 2021 UN report, there is evidence of tactics including the use of chemical weapons, airstrikes on densely populated areas, encirclement of rebel-held areas to deprive civilians of food, and obstruction of humanitarian aid.
“Authoritarian rule is central to this conflict because the Bashar al-Assad government has consistently refused to compromise or share power,” says Julian Barnes, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
By 2022, the United Nations estimated that more than 300,000 civilians had been killed in military operations, while many more suffered from hunger, disease and lack of basic health services.
Berko Ochilik, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, says the Syrian government is more focused on its own survival than good governance.
A divided society
Barnes Dacey says that the ongoing conflict in Syria is driven by sectarian divisions as well as political differences.
Since the early days of the war, the Kurdish-majority areas have not been controlled by the government, while the remaining fighters of the so-called Islamic State are still present in the vast deserts of Syria and pose a threat to the people.
The country's northeastern province of Idlib has become a stronghold of militant groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which also governs the province.
Fighting between these extremist groups has made the situation even more difficult.
Several groups, including the Turkish-backed group, have clashed with the SDF. The SDF includes fighters from the Kurdish YPG group, which Turkey has labeled an extremist organization.
Just days after the recent Hayat Tahrir al-Sham offensive began, the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army claimed to have captured the outskirts of Aleppo.
However, these areas were not under the control of Bashar al-Assad’s army, but rather the SDF, which highlights the differences between the two groups.
Failed international diplomacy
A major reason for all attempts at peace talks is the conflicting agendas of the parties involved in the conflict.
Experts say that most major parties are unwilling to compromise on their strategic goals, making it unlikely that a lasting solution will be reached.
Barnes-Dacey says that Bashar al-Assad neither wants to leave the government nor is he ready to make any kind of compromise, while the rebel groups want to overthrow the Assad government and establish their own monopoly.
Frankel-Pratt says that “other countries in the region are very worried about the situation in Syria because they also do not know how this problem will be resolved.” He says that such countries then act conservatively.
“For example, we may see that Iran and the Gulf countries gather supporters to temporarily stabilize the situation.”
He added that similarly, the United States and Europe should adopt conservative foreign policies that are aimed solely at preventing the conflict from spreading further.
Some experts point to the uncertainty created by the changing policies of the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump.
For example, Turkey is reportedly in favor of the rebels making progress before Trump takes office in order to gain leverage in negotiations with the United States and Russia.
However, Barnes-Dacey says that it is currently unclear what the Trump administration's policy on the Middle East will be.
He says that "the Trump administration is also divided in two. One group supports a pro-Israel, anti-Iran aggressive policy in the Middle East, while the other group wants the United States to stay out of any conflict."
According to Barnes-Dacey, "it is impossible to say at this time whether Trump will adopt a policy of further intervention in the Middle East, targeting Iran, or accelerate the US withdrawal from the region and leave regional powers to resolve their disputes independently."
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#Syria #Iran #Islamic_State #Middle_East #Donald_Trump #Turkey
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