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Bashar al-Assad's removal from power 'a blow to Putin': What will happen to Russian bases in Syria now?

Russian military bases in Syria, including Tartus and Khmeimim, with a focus on their strategic importance, amid geopolitical uncertainty following potential regime changes

Steve Rosenberg
Post, Editor, BBC Russia
December,09,2024.

Pros and Cons of Bashar al-Assad's Removal Regarding Russian Bases

Pros

1. Geopolitical Opportunity for the West: Assad's removal could weaken Russia's influence in the Middle East, providing Western powers with a chance to strengthen alliances in the region.  
2. End of Controversial Regime: A change in leadership might pave the way for a government more aligned with Western and Gulf interests, potentially stabilizing the region.  
3. Shift in Alliances: With new leadership, Syria might reduce its dependency on Russia, opening doors for alternative partnerships.  

Cons  

1. Threat to Russian Assets: Russia's naval base in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim could face operational disruptions or eviction under a less Russia-friendly regime.  
2. Power Vacuum Risk: Assad's removal could lead to a chaotic transition, possibly giving extremist groups an opportunity to regain footholds in Syria.  
3. Loss of Influence: Russia's longstanding strategic presence in the Mediterranean and Middle East might diminish, impacting its global power dynamics.  
4. Regional Instability: The removal could lead to heightened tensions between global powers, complicating Syria's reconstruction and peace efforts.  
                                         

Bashar al-Assad has been in power in Syria for the past nine years, thanks to Russian support. But developments in the past few days have seen Russia’s plan for Syria fail and Moscow now appears to be powerless.

In a statement, the Russian Interior Ministry announced that Assad had resigned as president and had left the country. It did not say where he had gone. Moscow said it was watching the dramatic events in Syria with concern.

The end of Assad’s rule is a major blow to Russia’s reputation.

By sending thousands of troops to Assad’s aid in 2015, Russia had established itself as a global power. It was Vladimir Putin’s first major challenge: how to navigate the former Soviet Union in the face of Western dominance.

It was Putin’s apparent success. In 2017, he announced the success of the mission while visiting the Russian Hmeimim airbase in Syria. At the time, there were reports that Russian airstrikes had killed many civilians. But despite this, the Russian Foreign Ministry was so confident that it took the world media on a plane and showed them a view of the Russian military operation in Syria.

Russian military bases in Syria, including Tartus and Khmeimim, with a focus on their strategic importance, amid geopolitical uncertainty following potential regime changes
During a visit to a Russian air base in Syria in 2017, Putin recalled some troops.

I remember an officer telling me on one such visit that “Russia is in Syria for the long haul.”

But it wasn’t just about Russian prestige.

In exchange for military assistance, the Syrian authorities leased Russia the Hmeimim air base and the Tartarus naval base for 49 years. Russia had established a key position in the eastern Mediterranean. These bases were important because they allowed military contractors to move in and out of Africa.

The key question for Moscow now is what will happen to its bases in Syria?

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russian bases in Syria have been “placed on high alert.” However, it claims that these bases “are not currently under any serious threat.”

Russian military bases in Syria, including Tartus and Khmeimim, with a focus on their strategic importance, amid geopolitical uncertainty following potential regime changes


Assad was Russia’s biggest ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had invested heavily in him. It had poured financial, military and political resources into keeping him in power.

It would be difficult for Russian officials to justify Assad’s removal from power as anything other than a failure.

In a statement on social media, Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, wrote that “what is happening in Syria is very difficult for everyone. There are no exceptions... it is a tragedy for everyone.”

He added that “the priority of the Russians is to ensure the safety of their citizens, diplomats, their families and, of course, soldiers.”

What will happen to Russian troops and bases in Syria?

Russia says it maintains contact with Syrian opposition groups and has also guaranteed the security of Russian air bases. However, the situation is not that simple.

There are currently 7,500 Russian troops in Syria, most of whom are stationed at key Russian military installations, including Tartus and Latakia.

However, several dozen Russian troops, most of whom are elite special forces operators, are stationed in various locations in Syria. Some of these units managed to get close to Russian bases during the rebel advance, but dozens are still separated from the main group.

This information was confirmed by two retired Russian officers who are in direct contact with the troops in Syria. Both of them wrote about it in their blogs.

However, the future of the Fajvi bases remains uncertain. Satellite images reviewed by BBC Russian show that most of the Russian ships had left the naval base in Tartus by December 3.

Meanwhile, warplanes are still at the airfield in Latakia. There are also unconfirmed reports that the withdrawal of planes and troops from there will begin tomorrow.

Russian officials have not yet commented on the reports.

Related Topics

#Syria #Middle_East #Russia

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