Ahmed al Shara's rebel alliance claims to be free of jihadist past but can they be trusted?

Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Shara

Ahmed al-Shara's rebel alliance claims to be free of jihadist past - but can they be trusted?

Article details

Author, Mina al-Ami

Ahda, Chief Jihadist Media Specialist BBC Monitoring

Twitter, @Minalami

December,22,2024

Last week, Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Shara, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, was visiting Damascus. A young woman approached him and asked to take a picture with him. Ahmed al-Shara gently asked the woman to cover her head before taking the picture. The incident quickly became a topic of discussion on Arab social media and the mainstream media.

It may seem like a minor incident, but it is actually of great importance because it highlights the precarious situation facing Syria's new rulers. Syria's current rulers are designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.

On one side is the diverse and in some cases relatively liberal Syrian population, as well as the international community, whose acceptance is crucial to the survival and legitimacy of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

The incident offered a disturbing glimpse into the future of Syria under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), raising concerns about whether conservative thinking could lead to mandatory veiling for all women.

On the other hand, some hardliners object to Ahmed al-Shara’s photo with a “naked woman,” insisting that his action violates religious principles.

These hardliners wield considerable influence over the militant factions and can fuel opposition within al-Shara’s own constituency.

The biggest challenge for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will be balancing the competing demands of the international community and the liberal Syrian population and hardliners. Both sides are watching HTS’s every move closely.

Ahmed al-Shara, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani,

For the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, balancing the conflicting expectations of different groups in society is crucial to achieving its political ambitions.

Ahmed al-Shara has so far focused his messages on coexistence within Syria’s diverse society. He has declared an amnesty for former soldiers who were forcibly conscripted into the army and banned reprisals against former government officials and their supporters.

He has adopted a conciliatory attitude towards adversaries such as Israel, the United States, Iran, and Russia, and has distanced himself from provocative statements and threats.

His statements focus on themes such as stability and reconstruction, in order to remove HTS and Ahmed al-Shara from the lists of international terrorists.

Unease among hardliners

It is not yet clear whether Ahmed al-Shara’s flexible approach reflects a genuine ideological shift or is simply a deliberate strategy to gain acceptance of his rule, after which he will implement a hardline and conservative agenda.

However, Ahmed al-Shara’s more progressive actions are already causing unease among hardliners in Syria, who insist on an Islamic government based on a strict and distinct Sunni identity.

Although Sunni Arabs are the dominant ethnic and religious group in Syria, the country is remarkably diverse, with various minority groups, including Alawites, Kurds, Christians, Druze, Turkmen, and Ismailis. There are also other smaller groups.

Crowds celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Umayyad Square

If the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is truly sincere in its efforts, it will be impossible for the hardline Muslim and jihadist factions in Syria to accept any system that is not based on strict Islamic principles. If HTS deviates from the path of a hardline Islamic system, these factions will likely resort to armed resistance to enforce their ideology.

This is not a new challenge for HTS, however.

The journey from Islamic State to al-Qaeda and HTS

For a decade, the group, formerly known as the Nusra Front and with roots in international jihadist movements, has been evolving.

HTS began as a clandestine branch of the ultra-hardline ISIS in 2011 and 2012. It then affiliated with al-Qaeda the following year and became an independent group by 2016.

It consolidated its control over the Idlib province in northwestern Syria in 2017 and ran a civilian ‘government’ in the area, which it claimed had no long-standing jihadist ties or ambitions.

This evolution reflects Ahmed al-Shara’s strategic vision and likely speaks to opportunism and his pragmatic strategy aimed at ensuring the group’s acceptance and long-term survival.

HTS’s strategy of not posing a threat to the outside world has already shown positive results.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emerged as an independent group in 2016.

When its former jihadist partners, al-Qaeda and ISIS (ISIS), came under heavy US-led coalition airstrikes in Syria, killing most of their leaders, Ahmed al-Sharaa operated with relative freedom in Idlib.

Although he had a $10 million US bounty on his head at the time, which was later removed, he often appeared in public, attending events and engaging with the public with the freedom of a state leader.

However, Ahmed al-Sharaa’s jihadist critics accuse him of being a cunning politician who is willing to compromise on key ideological principles to advance his career and gain political advantage for the HST, at the expense of other militant groups in the country.

How did the rebels win over the public?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham adopted a dual strategy to consolidate its authority in Idlib. It provided some stability to win the hearts and minds of local populations and used force to crush or reconcile its rivals, even former allies.

The group distanced itself from the typical rhetoric of jihadist ideology, war for religion, and the establishment of Islamic rule (Sharia) in Syria, which was part of a broader global project.

Instead, it adopted a more ‘revolutionary’ and nationalist narrative focused on the sole goal of overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and ‘liberating’ Syria.

There were protests against HTS in Idlib before Bashar al-Assad's fall from power.

HTS established a government in Idlib called the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which was intended to demonstrate its ability to govern and consolidate its legitimacy.

This move was probably also done to allay fears that a “group with extremist ideologies” was running a province and to distance itself from the oppressive concept of ISIS ruling Syria and Iraq.

The SSG functioned like a “mini-state.” It included a prime minister, ministries, and local departments, which managed key sectors such as education, health, and reconstruction, while a religious council provided guidance on sharia.

The SSG established professional military and police academies, which often featured graduation ceremonies and military parades, usually attended by al-Sharia.

The SSG has touted its achievements in reconstruction and service delivery, often contrasting these efforts with the worsening conditions and corruption in areas controlled by the Syrian government or rival rebel groups. Al-Sharaa has even twice attended and given speeches at the annual Idlib Book Fair.

However, HTS has faced significant challenges in Idlib and its governance has not been easy.

Before the HTS-led rebel offensive on November 27, the group had been facing protests that specifically targeted the Al-Sharaa leadership.

Protesters accused HTS of suppressing dissent, including the enforced disappearances and imprisonment of opponents and critics.

Rebels celebrate in Hama after Bashar al-Assad's forces retreat

The group has also faced criticism for allegedly colluding with foreign powers, with accusations that it could undermine the 'jihad' in Syria.

HTS was rocked by a major scandal in 2023, with spies revealed within its top leadership and hardliners accusing it of deliberately avoiding meaningful combat against Syrian forces to appease foreign backers.

Hardliners vs. liberals: religious restrictions

Although some locals have complained about religious restrictions in Idlib, as reported by Arab media and NGOs, these complaints have not been widespread.

This is probably due to HTS's relatively flexible approach and the fact that most residents of the province are conservative Sunni Muslims who generally accept the status quo.

Indeed, hardliners have often criticized HTS for being “soft” and failing to enforce strict Sharia law in Idlib.

Ahmed al-Sharaa argues that the idea of ​​enforcing strict laws, such as a morality police, is outdated and often leads to harm. “We do not want to create a hypocritical society that prays in front of us and leaves in our absence,” he said in April 2023.

He stressed that he wanted people to embrace Islamic teachings on the basis of faith, not by force.

In early 2024, Ahmed al-Shara’s Ministry of Interior established the morality police. 

Despite these comments, the group often resorted to harsh measures, clearly aimed at appeasing hardliners. This trend suggests how HTS might respond to such pressure in the future.

For example, although the hisbah (morality police) structures that had been operating under different names had been dissolved, and despite Ahmed al-Shara’s clear opposition, the SSG established a “public morality police” under its Ministry of Interior in early 2024.

These morality forces monitored shops, forced women to meet religious dress requirements, and restricted the mixing of men and women in public places.

A few months earlier, the SSG’s Ministry of Education issued a decree requiring all female students and female staff to wear “loose Islamic clothing” that was in accordance with Sharia.

This included covering the hair and avoiding fashions and trends that were deemed ‘against our religious teachings’. The decree also banned co-education in primary and secondary schools.

Conflicts with other rebel groups

Syrian opposition groups, whether rebel or jihadist, have been chaotic and fragmented, often fighting each other over internal disputes, territory, resources, power and ideology.

For years, this continued discord, along with other factors, has hampered the ability to achieve victory against Bashar al-Assad.

The new rebel coalition that led to Assad’s downfall may also prove fragile. In addition, internal challenges from rival factions remain.

HTS has a history of disagreements with other rebel groups

HTS has long had tense relations with the other major rebel group in Syria, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The SNA is focused on seizing Kurdish-held territory in northern Syria, in line with Ankara’s priorities, so that Turkey can eliminate the Kurdish threat on its borders.

It remains to be seen whether the two groups will be able to agree on the division of strategic positions seized from Kurdish forces. HTS talks of uniting all of Syria under its leadership.

ISIS, which is still active in Syria through its operatives and sleeper cells, has declared its jihad in the country and has described the HTS-led rebel authority as “apostates” that it says were brought to power by infidel forces.

With the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) losing control of the northeast, ISIS is likely to turn its attention to the prisons and camps in Hasakah where ISIS-affiliated fighters and their families are held. Mass releases or escapes from these prisons could significantly increase ISIS’s ability to destabilize Syria.

Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and the brutal crackdown by the Assad regime, Syria has attracted foreign fighters, religious leaders, and international jihadist groups, facilitated in particular by its insecure borders with Turkey.

Bashar al-Assad’s images are now being trampled underfoot

After making deals with foreign powers to consolidate its control over Idlib and potentially contain the jihadist threat in northern Syria, HTS has crushed some local and foreign factions and absorbed others, integrating them into its structure. Its units have been renamed to hide their foreign identity. These include small factions from Central Asia, the Caucasus (Chechens) and China’s Uyghur minority.

Many of these smaller factions, including independent jihadist groups such as Ansar al-Islam and Ansar al-Tawhid, have actively participated in the campaign to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regime, highlighting their potential interest in shaping the future of the new Syria.

HTS, along with post-Assad groups such as al-Qaeda, as well as moderate Islamic figures and scholars, have called on the group to ensure the demise of the Sunni Islamic system in Syria.

Gaining Power

When a CNN correspondent asked Ahmed al-Sharaa on December 6 whether the HTS intended to impose an Islamic system, al-Sharaa gave a vague answer rather than a yes or no answer.

“Those who are afraid of Islamic rule have either seen its misapplication or do not understand it properly,” he said.

This cautious response suggests that the HTS plans to impose Islamic rule, but perhaps in a more flexible and nuanced way.

But after the initial enthusiasm and united effort to achieve a common goal since the overthrow of the Assad regime, ideological tensions have begun to resurface.

On December 9, the HTS issued a decree granting amnesty to former soldiers, but hardliners in Syria expressed deep displeasure at the move, condemning it as un-Islamic. Even calling for disobedience and retaliatory attacks against former government loyalists, in direct violation of the HST order.

In an attempt to appease critics, the HTS issued a statement explaining that it would pursue former government officials and loyalists involved in war crimes. At the same time, the HTS sought to consolidate its authority and vowed that anyone who disobeyed its order by engaging in reprisals would be punished.

Another controversy arose on December 16 when Ahmed al-Sharaa announced plans to dismantle and disarm militant groups and militias in the country and to concentrate weapons only in the hands of the state and the army.

Once again, hardliners protested and urged the various factions to keep their weapons. He said the move would strengthen HTS's hand and leave no other group armed to challenge its authority, paving the way for oppression.

HTS's muted response to repeated Israeli airstrikes in Syria since Assad's fall has further fueled discontent. After several days of silence, on December 14, Ahmed al-Shara criticized the attacks but said his group had no intention of getting involved in a new conflict. He stressed its current focus on rebuilding Syria. He also said he would not allow Syria to be used as a launch pad for attacks against Israel.

Some extremist groups may also launch operations against HTS in the near future.

Some have described Ahmed al-Sharaa’s stance on Israel as weak and contrary to Islamic principles. An al-Qaeda statement said that HTS should prioritize fulfilling its “responsibility” to defend Palestinians in Gaza and fighting Israel.

These tensions suggest that hardliners within HTS’ ranks and outside factions may be prepared to take up arms against the group if they see it straying from its vision for a new religious Syria.

Many of these individuals and factions have spent their energies in the country and will not give up their ambitions easily, and they see Syria, like Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, as a strong Sunni Islamic state that can exert regional influence while serving as a safe haven for oppressed Muslims and jihadi fugitives.

Under pressure from both liberals and hardliners, Ahmed al-Sharaa and HTS are treading a difficult path, trying not to anger either side too much.

Related Topics

#Syria #Military #Middle_East