If Israel can reach a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, why not with Hamas in Gaza?
How to Facilitate Peace Talks Between Israel and Hamas
The Israeli government announced a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which began to be implemented today (Wednesday).
Israel has been fighting Hamas and Hezbollah on the fronts in Gaza and Lebanon since October last year, and due to increasing tensions, many world leaders and analysts have expressed fears that this war may spread to the entire Middle East.
We spoke to BBC representatives in the region and tried to find out why Israel has declared a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but there has been no progress in Gaza in this regard, and how the situation has reached this point.
The aftermath of the rocket attack on northern Israel from Lebanon
Kerin Torby, BBC News Arabic correspondent, Beirut
Israel deals with its two regional enemies: Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza in very different ways.
On one side is Gaza, which is occupied by Israel, while Lebanon is an independent state. For a time, Israel also occupied Lebanon, but it was forced to withdraw after persistent resistance from Hezbollah and other groups.
Despite its military prowess and air superiority, Israel has suffered heavy losses in its ongoing ground offensive in Lebanon. Two months later, it has failed to establish control over southern Lebanon and has not eliminated Hezbollah's ability to launch rocket attacks on Israel.
Hezbollah is now successfully targeting Israeli cities further inside the Israeli border, causing not only casualties but also disrupting normal life in several major cities.
In addition, Israel has also failed to ensure the timely return of its citizens displaced by Hezbollah rocket attacks in the north. This may also be one of the reasons that forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
The Israeli army appears to be suffering from fatigue in the ongoing war against Hezbollah, while the political and economic pressure on Israel as a result of this war is also increasing.
Dr. Leila Nichols, an author of Global and Regional Strategies in the Middle East, says that Israel has no clear plan for what it wants to do in Gaza.
She says that Israel may want to wait until Donald Trump becomes US president in January 2025 to do so.
In contrast, there is a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon, on the basis of which a recent agreement was reached. The basis of this ceasefire agreement is the UN Security Council resolution that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
At present, no clear details of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement have emerged. This can be taken as meaning that both sides have had to reconsider their initial goals in order to make the agreement a success. Israel has neither been able to eliminate Hezbollah nor ensure the return of citizens from northern Israel.
On the other hand, Hezbollah has also suffered considerable losses in this war. Several of its top leaders have been killed in Israeli attacks, while its military capabilities have also been severely damaged. Perhaps this is why it seems to be backing down from its condition that it will not stop its attacks until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached.
Dr. Nicholas says that Iran would not want Hezbollah to be involved in a long-term war that would further reduce its capabilities.
Adnan Al-Barsh, BBC News Arabic correspondent, Gaza
Some in Gaza are seeing the decision as Hezbollah abandoning its ‘unity of the fronts’ strategy, a strategy endorsed by Hezbollah and Hamas at the start of the war with Israel. It agreed to coordinate operations between the so-called ‘axis of resistance’, which includes Hezbollah and Hamas, other militant groups in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and other smaller militant groups in Iraq.
A clear difference between the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and the situation in Gaza is that Hezbollah gave full authority to the Lebanese government for negotiations, while Hamas in Gaza is leading the negotiations itself and refusing to give representation to the Palestinian Authority.
The division among the Palestinians and the lack of a unified, officially recognised state to negotiate with Israel are also reasons why a ceasefire agreement in Gaza has not been reached.
Some experts believe that Hamas is suffering from a leadership deficit after Israel killed Hamas leaders. This also means that Hamas is no longer in a position to negotiate a ceasefire effectively. The difficulties in communicating between Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza are making this task even more difficult.
Author and political analyst Professor Fathi Sabah told the BBC that Israel believes its real war is in Gaza because in his view Hamas, not Hezbollah, started the fighting. “When Israel felt that they had destroyed Hamas’s ability to fight in Gaza, they had an opportunity to attack Hezbollah.”
Professor Sabah believes that Israel also took into account Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities, which are much greater than Hamas’s, when deciding to reach a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah rockets are reaching cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa, affecting Israel and the thousands of people who have been displaced by these attacks.”
He added that another factor behind Israel’s decision to cease hostilities was the attitude of its allies, the United States and France. Israel’s allies were concerned about Israeli aggression against Lebanon.
Israeli troops are stationed on the Israeli side of the border in southern Lebanon
By Muhand Tutanji, BBC News Arabic, Jerusalem
The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel is driven by a number of factors, including the political and military situation in Lebanon and Gaza.
Hezbollah is part of a wider political landscape in Lebanon. It represents just one of several sectarian and political groups in the country, and some analysts believe that not all Lebanese citizens share Hezbollah's views on Israel.
However, the situation in Gaza is completely different. Hamas is not only in government there, but also the main military force in Gaza.
Hamas also has the support of several other factions that share its anti-Israel stance.
For Israelis, the war in Lebanon is different from the war in Gaza.
The aim of the Israeli military operation in Lebanon was to eliminate any military threat to the inhabitants of northern Israel and ensure their safety.
Israel has announced the complete elimination of Hamas in Gaza, but Israel has not yet achieved its goal. In addition, 101 Israeli hostages are still being held in Gaza, and this may also affect the ceasefire talks.
Former head of Israel's National Security Council, Yaakov Amdror, told the BBC that many people in Lebanon fear that the conflict could spread to other parts of Lebanon.
Commenting on Israel's decision to separate the Gaza conflict from Lebanon, Amdror said that this is very important for Israel because it will help Israel focus on its efforts to completely eliminate Hamas in Gaza.
He added that the real issue is not the ceasefire agreement but its implementation. He asked what Israel's response would be if Hezbollah violated the ceasefire agreement.
Hezbollah's future
After the Israeli army withdrew from Lebanon, thousands of Lebanese soldiers will be deployed in the southern parts of the country. But it is not yet clear how they will be deployed.
The Lebanese army has said that it does not have the resources to carry out this responsibility. But it is not just a question of resources. The question arises: is the Lebanese army ready to face Hezbollah? In such a case, the Lebanese army may have to fight Hezbollah fighters from its own country. And in a country like Lebanon, where sectarian tensions are always present, this situation can create new problems.
Hezbollah has also suffered considerable losses in the war with Israel. Several leaders, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed in Israeli attacks, while its infrastructure has also been damaged.
Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, but the organization is still not finished.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is much more than a militia. It is also a political party with representation in parliament. Hezbollah also functions as a social organization, supported by the country's Shiite circles.
Hezbollah's opponents may try to use this situation to reduce its influence.
Before this war, Hezbollah could be seen as a state within a state.
For months, Hezbollah's critics have argued that Hezbollah has dragged the country into a war that is not in its interest.
While the deal may end the war against Israel, many in Lebanon fear that it could lead to a new conflict within the country.
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#Hamas #Lebanon #Middle_East #Israel #War
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